Euro Still Benefitting from Trichet Comments
In Asian trading today, the common currency Euro remained steady, holding onto yesterday’s gains following the hawkish comments issued by European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet. As reported at 3:19 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the Euro was trading against the U.S. Dollar at $1.3970, just off the $1.3976 high struck yesterday on the EBS trading platform. One forex analyst in Hong Kong believes the Euro will retain its strength over the next few weeks, possibly testing the November peak of $1.4283.
At the conclusion of the ECB policy setting meeting yesterday, the ECB president took a tough stance against inflationary pressures, signaling a possible interest rate hike, perhaps as soon as next month. Markets had been hopeful of some intimation that rate hike discussions were underway, but were unprepared for Trichet’s frankness.
The Euro was also higher against the New Zealand and Australian Dollars, striking a 10-month peak of NZ$1.8935 and a 5-week peak of A$1.3800. It also held firm against the Swiss Franc, surging 1.6% yesterday to trade at 1.3007 Swiss Francs. Support for the Euro is seen in the near term, but continuing fiscal debt worries among the peripheral Eurozone countries may pressure the common currency.
商情綜述:
1.黃金期貨-利比亞動亂影響，推升上周五紐約期金反彈；因利比亞衝突加劇造成油價大漲，令投資者尋求避險資產，推升金價，其中紐約4月黃金上漲12.2美元，收盤每盎司報1428.6美元，盤中交投區間為1413.80-1432.80美元；而受工業需求強勁的帶動，白銀期貨也勁揚近3%，其中5月白銀上漲100美分，收盤每盎司報3532.7美分，為近31年高位，盤中交投區間介於3420.5-3554美元。
2.LME基本金屬-投資人信心不足，上周五(4日)LME基本金屬期貨多數下跌，錫、鉛逆勢上漲；期錫收盤價每公噸31875美元，期鉛收盤價每公噸2630美元，分別上漲225美元、12美元。銅價盤中一度觸及9999美元，價格來到2月15日以來高點，終場受到LME銅庫存量上升打壓，銅價由紅翻黑，收盤價每公噸9895美元，下跌20美元；期鎳下跌60美元，期鋅下跌51美元，期鋁下跌12美元；分析師表示，高油價與北非動亂令美國正面的就業數據黯然失色，通脹謹慎情緒抑制基本金屬價格走勢。
3.原油期貨-因利比亞暴力衝突不斷，推升上周五紐約原油期漲至2年半新高，因利比亞石油設施附近發生暴力衝突，政府武裝在主要油港Ras Lanuf同安全部隊交火，且巴林和葉門也爆發衝突，而沙烏地阿拉伯周四也有示威活動，引發投資人對供應受干擾進一步憂慮，激勵油價勁揚，NYMEX交易所4月原油期貨揚2.51美元，至每桶104.42美元，創2008年9月26日以來新高，漲幅2.5%，倫敦4月布蘭特原油期貨漲1.18美元，至每桶115.97美元，漲幅1%。
4.航運指數-需求帶動，推升上周五BDI指數連6紅；由於巴拿馬船型受新一批南美穀物船貨支撐市場，帶動此船型運價走高，加上原本人氣低迷的海岬型船型略微回溫，進一步提振BDI指數上漲29點，漲幅2.2%，終場收作1346點，為連續第6天上漲；而BCI指數上漲37點，漲幅近2.7%，收作1427點；另外BPI指數上漲54點或漲2.8%，收作1983點；BSI指數續漲13點或漲近0.9%，以1467點作收。
5.橡膠期貨-賣盤打壓，上周五(4日)期膠價格下跌，新加坡SICOM橡膠RSS3號4月期貨收盤價每公斤595.0星分，下跌5星分；日本TOCOM橡膠RSS3號8月期貨收盤價每公斤468.4日圓，下跌7.3日圓。現貨方面，追隨期貨價格收低，最新報價泰國曼谷橡膠RSS3號FOB現貨價每公斤183.25泰銖，下跌1.35%；馬來西亞吉隆坡橡膠SMR10號FOB現貨價每公斤516.13美分，下跌1.13%。分析師表示，天然橡膠價格回落修正，賣壓沈重，後市膠價將持續盤整。
6.穀物期貨-受原油價格上漲支撐，上周五芝加哥穀物期貨多收上揚，其中大豆期貨收漲，累計本周收高2.8%，終場5月大豆收高2美分，結算價報每英斗1414美分；小麥期貨收高，受美國大平原乾燥天氣威脅硬紅冬麥產量支撐，5月小麥收高8.75美分，結算價報每英斗832.25美分；玉米期貨收低，5月玉米期貨收低8.75美分，結算價報每英斗728美分。
7.棉花期貨-出口強勁報告提振，激勵上周五紐約期棉再創新高；由於市場持續受上周四美國農業部（USDA）發佈的出口強勁報告提振，美國紐約(NYCE/ICE)交易所3月期棉上漲6.95美分，揚升幅度逾3.3%，終場收報每磅215.15美分；而5月期棉收漲停7美分，收報每磅212.70美分，上漲幅度為3.4%。分析師表示，棉花供應不足，加上全球經濟成長樂觀，推動投機買盤持續進駐，使期棉市場交易暢旺。
8.記憶體現貨-市場動能停滯，買方持觀望態度，上周五記憶體現貨價緩跌；DRAM方面，DDR3 2Gb 1333MHz及DDR3 1Gb 1333NHz分別下跌0.34%及0.66%，DDR2 1Gb 800MHz也跌至1.36美元，跌幅0.22%；NAND Flash方面則因部分供應商降價以刺激需求，價格同樣緩跌，其中16Gb MLC下跌1%，32Gb MLC也下跌0.4%，整體交易量有限。
